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Monday, November 14, 2016

That didn't take long

Elon Musk has announced gigafactory 2. Gigafactory 1 hasn't even been finished yet.

But it makes sense. Europe has a strong car market and Tesla would like to have their cars built there instead of having them shipped there with tariffs added. There will have to be another factory anyway if desired production numbers are to be met.

The announcement was made and Elon Musk said:

“This is something that we plan on exploring quite seriously with different locations for very large scale Tesla vehicles, and battery and powertrain production — essentially an integrated ‘Gigafactory 2,’”

Sounds like gigafactory 3 is already in mind. China maybe? How about South America? Australia?

And let's not forget that the PowerWall and PowerPack are huge battery projects in their own right. And capacity will have to include them as well. That's a lot of GWs.

And just how many cars is Telsa planning to produce? From the proceeds of gigafactory 1 it appears that the bar is set at about 1 million cars by 2020. And with gigafacory 2 perhaps they will be able to double that number in Europe.

I realize that gas-driven car production in the world dwarfs those numbers. But if expected production and sales of Tesla EVs come to fruition, then the tide of the future will be known. Magnetic drive will move into the car space like everyone knew the white LED would move into the flashlight space.

Other big players are ramping up in a similar way. Chinese battery factories feel the need to keep up with Tesla and they have the capital and business sense to always be an effective rival. And let's remember that VW isn't the largest car company in the world because they can't get customers the kind of cars they want.

UPDATE: Jaguar, owned by Tata Motors, has announced their BEV luxury sedan. The electric Jaguar is expected to have similar stats and as the Tesla model S.

And let's not forget Fisker... just joking, you can forget about Fisker.

The problem I see is that batteries aren't quite ready. The transition from oil powered transportation to magnetic drive might not sound like a big deal, but it will be profound. And Elon is betting the battery that is really needed will be available in the future and his factories will be ready to produce them like no one else.

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